Are Luxury Watches a Good Investment? What We See From the Counter

A few luxury watches hold their value well. Most lose money once you count what it costs to sell them.

We buy and sell pre-owned watches on Jewelers’ Row every day, so we often see the same watch twice. Once when someone buys it, and again when they bring it back. Here’s what that looks like in 2026.

What Happened To Prices After 2022

In 2020 and 2021, people bought Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet as if prices only went one way. The bubble burst in May 2022, the market froze, and the hottest brands fell by around 60% from peak to trough on the secondary market.[1] The slide started hard and eased off gradually until spring 2025.

Rolex held up better than Patek on the way down. By October 2023, a Rolex index was down 27% from its April 2022 peak and a Patek Philippe index was down 47%. Prices kept slipping in 2024, when the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index fell nearly 6% for the year.

The market has turned since then. As of February 2026, Patek prices had risen for twelve straight months and were up 16.2% on the year, and Rolex and Audemars Piguet had been climbing since late 2025.

Most of the people who lost money bought in 2021, right at the top. Someone who paid a fair price in 2019 or 2023 is in decent shape today.

Which Watches Held Their Value

Rolex sports models came through best. The Submariner, GMT-Master II and Daytona dropped from their peaks but kept selling the whole time, and the most in-demand Rolex and Patek models stayed well above retail even during the slide.

At TNS, the Rolex models selling fastest right now are the Submariner in date and no-date versions, the GMT-Master II in Pepsi and Batman, and the Datejust 41 with cleaner dial and bracelet combinations.

Patek’s Nautilus and Aquanaut fell harder than anything else in percentage terms. They’ve also recovered fastest, because a lot of collectors were waiting for prices to come down.

Cartier surprised people. It was the only brand whose index rose from January 2023 through 2024, as collectors took to smaller shaped watches. A clean Tank or Santos is much easier to sell now than it was five years ago.

Watches that only carried a premium because of hype had a rough few years. That covers a lot of limited editions and the less popular models from big brands. Audemars Piguet shows the pattern well. AP prices have swung more than Rolex over the past two years, and the premiums buyers paid at the top have since normalized.

For current names and demand, we keep a list of the watches selling fastest in the pre-owned market.

The Dealer Spread

Every dealer buys for less than they sell. The gap pays for authentication and servicing, and for the months a watch can sit in the case before the right buyer walks in.

So a watch has to rise in value before you break even. Buy one today and sell it back next month in a flat market, and you’ll get less than you paid.

The size of that gap depends on the watch. A popular Rolex in good condition sells quickly, so there is less risk for the dealer holding it. A watch that could sit for months carries more risk, and the offer reflects that.

You pay the spread once. Over five years it matters much less than over five months.

Why Box And Papers Change The Offer

Dealers call a watch with its original box and papers a full set. Spare links and service records help as well.

The papers do most of the work. They tie the serial number to an authorized sale, which speeds up authentication and gives the next buyer confidence. A missing box costs less, but it still shows in the offer.

In our store, full-set watches command a meaningful premium and sell faster than examples without papers at the same price.

Keep everything from the day you buy, hang tags included. It takes up one drawer and pays you back when you sell.

Polishing And Service History

People are surprised by how much polishing costs them. Every polish takes a little metal off the case and softens the edges, and collectors notice. An unpolished watch with honest wear can be worth more than a shiny one.

A recent service helps, because the next owner won’t be facing a repair bill soon after buying.

Every watch that comes through TNS goes across the bench of Paul, our in-house watchmaker. The two mistakes he sees cost collectors the most are parts swapped when they didn’t need to be and cases polished too often. Neither shows up right away, but both take value off the watch.

Buying With Resale In Mind

Pick a popular model over a rare one from the same brand. It’ll almost always sell faster, and our piece on what makes a watch or diamond easy to resell explains why.

Check sold prices before you buy. Asking prices run high, and the watches that sit longest in our store are almost always priced above where the market has settled.

Get the full set and plan to keep the watch for years.

And buy one you like wearing. Watch prices have gone sideways for years at a time before, and if that happens again you’ll still want to enjoy what’s on your wrist.

Our pre-owned watch inventory changes as watches come in. If you’re selling, here’s how we buy watches.

FAQs

Are luxury watches a good investment in 2026?

A small group of models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Cartier have held value and are climbing again after the slide from 2022 to 2025. Most other watches lose money once you pay the dealer spread. If you buy for value, plan on a long hold.

Which watches hold their value best?

Rolex sports models like the Submariner and GMT-Master II, Patek’s Nautilus and Aquanaut, and Cartier’s Tank and Santos have held up best. A full set and original condition matter almost as much as the model.

How much do box and papers add to a watch’s value?

A full set commands a meaningful premium and sells faster than the same watch without papers. The exact difference depends on the model and its condition. Papers count for more than the box because they help prove the watch is authentic.

Can luxury watches be considered a liquid asset?

Popular models sell within days. Others take months, or need a price cut to move. Our guide to what makes a piece liquid covers the details.

How do I know a pre-owned watch is authentic?

Buy from a dealer with a qualified watchmaker in-house, someone who can open the case and knows what should be inside. At TNS, every watch that comes through the store goes across the bench of our watchmaker, Paul.